2024 Emmy Predictions: Outstanding Documentary or Nonfiction Special:

The Emmy nominations for Outstanding Documentary or Nonfiction Special were definitely more predictable than their counterparts on the series end. Most of the projects recognized fit the mold of what has won recently, with one nominee “Girls State” even being the sequel to the 2021 winner “Boys State” (both films are distributed by Apple TV+.)

Since then though, the winners have been profiles of pop culture icons that especially made their mark in the TV space. “George Carlin’s American Dream” winning in 2022 bodes well for Disney+ and director Ron Howard’s chances to win for “Jim Henson Idea Man,” which similarly takes a posthumous look at a creative that blazed his own trail that still looms large over today’s culture.

But the Emmys really can take a lot of campaigning, and “Albert Brooks: Defending My Life” had the power to not only bring out the titular comedy legend for rare public appearances in promotion of the film, but has been doing them with his best friend Rob Reiner, a two-time Emmy winner, who directed the project. The most recent winner in the category, “Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie,” is of a similar ilk to the HBO documentary, where part of the appeal to voters is having the subject of the film out and about, reminding people why they fell in love with his work in the first place.

“Steve! (Martin) A Documentary in 2 Pieces,” another nominee from Apple TV+ also fits that type, but again, these things can require some campaigning, and the project’s subject is already very busy with his other Emmy-nominated TV project “Only Murders in the Building.” There is a chance though that voters just may feel something is in the air, especially with Martin’s big Season 3 musical number getting an extra Emmy nomination for the Hulu series, causing them to feel like now is the perfect time to give the comedic actor his flowers. It would also be the first Emmy for director Morgan Neville, who has become a huge name in the documentary world after his 2014 Oscar win.

“The Greatest Night in Pop,” Netflix’s nominee directed by Bao Nguyen, is tons of fun in its retelling of how “We Are the World” came together, but where it may fall short in voters is that the projects they seem attracted to are more in depth on an individual’s body of work rather than one that capture a cultural moment involving several well known parties that could all have their own documentaries.

Nominees are listed in order of their likelihood to win.

View the nominees and this article at IndieWire.