2023 Emmy Predictions: Outstanding Scripted Variety Series:

It is still a disappointment to see that the Outstanding Scripted Variety Series category only ended up with 12 submissions. It especially would have been nice to see “Documentary Now” be able to stay in the category, and “Sherman’s Showcase” make it on to the ballot (both are on IFC).

Ultimately, voters are deeply familiar with all the major players that remain, having had “A Black Lady Sketch Show” (HBO) and “Saturday Night Live” (NBC) go head-to-head for the last three years in the former Outstanding Variety Sketch Series category, while new entrant “Last Week Tonight with John Oliver” won the related Emmy for Outstanding Variety Talk Series the last seven years in a row.

With “Saturday Night Live” and “Last Week Tonight” having had such long winning streaks, there is an element of excitement in seeing which acclaimed show will prevail now that they are in the same category. The edge likely goes to the latter given how “Last Week Tonight with John Oliver” has also won the Emmy for Outstanding Writing for a Variety Series for seven years straight, an awards category that both shows contend for.

The one shake-up that may happen though is “Inside Amy Schumer” (Paramount+) making it into the category over “A Black Lady Sketch Show.” It did actually beat “Saturday Night Live” to win the Outstanding Variety Sketch Series Emmy in 2015. Meanwhile the Robin Thede-helmed HBO show has only won directing and picture editing Emmys. If there was one more nomination slot, which would require four more shows to have submitted to the category, both would likely make it in.

View this article at IndieWire.