Oscars Predictions: Best Actress – Lily Gladstone Poised to Make History After Winning Golden Globe for ‘Killers of the Flower Moon’:

Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

Weekly Commentary (Jan. 8, 2024): Lily Gladstone made history with her win for “Killers of the Flower Moon,” becoming the first Indigenous actress to win in the category.

Her work as Mollie Burkhart, a woman determined to find the killers of her family and tribal members, has become the darling of the season. Notable citations from significant groups such as the National Board of Review and the New York Film Critics Circle further cement her status.

Her powerful speech, noting what her victory meant to her community, will elevate her candidacy and could carry her to the Oscar stage.

Each awards season has its own “story of the awards season” — the person who has generated positive reactions and becomes a discovery for cinephiles everywhere. We’ve seen it in Ke Huy Quan (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”), Troy Kotsur (“CODA”) and Lupita Nyong’o (“12 Years a Slave”). This year, it looks to be Gladstone, undoubtedly.

Gladstone faces stiff competition from the winner of best actress (comedy), Emma Stone from “Poor Things.” Stone made history, becoming the first woman to win actress and best picture the same year (Stone is a producer on “Poor Things”). An Oscar winner for “La La Land” (2016), she’s beloved within the acting community, and her work as Bella Baxter, a woman brought back to life by a scientist, is her strongest performance to date.

When the SAG nominations are announced on Wednesday, we’ll be given reliable clues on who will join Gladstone and Stone in the Oscar lineup. The mysterious and random SAG NomCom doesn’t often recognize non-English language performances (Isabelle Huppert was snubbed for “Elle”). We could see Sandra Hüller omitted for “Anatomy of a Fall,” but honestly, with a strong BAFTA showing and the film surging, a SAG miss likely wouldn’t convince me there’s a best actress lineup that won’t include her (at least at the moment).

Greta Lee (“Past Lives”), Carey Mulligan (“Maestro”) and Margot Robbie (“Barbie”) seem to be the most viable contenders for the two remaining slots. They’re also starring in what many believe are sure-fire best picture nominees.

Of course, Annette Bening showing up on the BAFTA longlist for “Nyad,” along with her co-star Jodie Foster becoming a likely nominee, will also help her on the trail. The same goes for “May December” star Natalie Portman, with Charles Melton and Julianne Moore vying for supporting slots.

The submission deadline for general categories is Nov. 15, 2023. The preliminary shortlist for eight categories is from Dec. 14-18, with the results announcement dropping on Dec. 21. The Oscar nomination period will run from Jan. 11-16, 2024, with the official nominees named on Jan. 23.

The 96th Oscars will be held on Sunday, March 10.

View the full list of predicted nominees at Variety.